Africa Action: Activism for Africa Since 1953
Kenya
Often referred to as "the cradle of humanity" because some of the earliest evidence of humankind's ancestors has been found there, Kenya is today the regional hub for trade and finance in East Africa and humanitarian efforts. Kenya has the region's most developed economy, but much of its economic potential was undermined by decades of corrupt business and government practices that favored a small group of individuals and businesses close to former dictator Daniel Arap Moi. Moi's 24-year hold on power ended in December 2002 when Mwai Kibaki led his National Rainbow Coalition (NARC) to a resounding electoral victory, but despite this coalition's promises of economic growth and curtailing corruption, Kenya remains a country of extreme disparities. Popular frustration at the persistence of poverty and lack of access to political power has contributed to the conflict that erupted out of the December 2007 presidential elections.
Entering office in 2003, the Kibaki administration faced grave challenges in improving the lives of Kenya's impoverished majority and tending to long-neglected infrastructure such as roads, telephones and railways. At the end of 2005, the failure of the rains and rapidly declining food security led President Kibaki to declare a state of emergency. The long-running drought and famine crisis peaked in 2006, with millions of Kenyans in need of emergency food aid supplied by the World Food Program. Increased competition over scarce resources, such as water and grazing land, exacerbated conflict among pastoralists and led to ethnically-targeted violence on numerous occasions.
Much of the optimism surrounding Kenya's potential as an emerging democracy and as a country symbolizing stability in a tumultuous and conflict-prone region soured as a result of the December 2007 presidential elections - (see Africa Action's January 3 statement). Despite widespread reports among local and international observers of election irregularities, incumbent Mwai Kibaki claimed victory and assumed the presidency, galvanizing widespread and violent civil unrest among supporters of Raila Odinga, leader of the opposition party the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM). A government crackdown on independent media broadcasting and repressive police actions targeting opposition supporters fueled the spread of a chaotic conflict that has left over a thousand people dead and hundreds of thousands displaced from their homes.
While Western media outlets seized upon the ethnic dimensions of the conflict as the sole explanation for the scope and intensity of the violence that emerged from the tarnished elections, this single-minded focus ignores the underlying structural socio-economic inequalities that are the ultimate root of the crisis. Poverty is still a defining reality for Kenya, with overall poverty levels at over 40% of the population and an average per-capita income of $580. Though, in recent years, economic recovery has been observed (6.1% GDP growth in 2006 and an estimated 6.5% in 2007) the post-election violence of 2008, coupled with the effects of the global financial crisis, resulted in an increase of just 2.3% that year. And, while the increases may have endeared Kenya to Western governments and investors, the benefits of the country's growth have been concentrated among an economic elite, and continued corruption perpetuates economic injustice. In addition, HIV/AIDS remains a serious challenge; though HIV prevalence rates have slowly declined over the past few years to 6.1 %. The mass internal displacement and humanitarian emergency created by the post-electoral violence risks destabilizing the recent expansion of access to lifesaving antiretrovirals for HIV-positive individuals
In January 2008, former UN Secretary General Kofi Annan traveled to Kenya to facilitate negotiations between Odinga and Kibaki to resolve the political crisis. Successfully brokering a power-sharing deal between the two rivals in February, with Odinga sworn in as prime minister in April 2008, Kenyans welcomed an end to chaos and uncertainty. However, the country faces long-term challenges in the election's aftermath. Critics assert that progress on such issues as land reform, constitutional change, youth unemployment, ethnic tensions, and so forth have been painfully slow, hampered by disagreements over the control of parliament committees and other legislative decision-making. And, in 2009, Annan accused Kenya's leaders of "losing [the] momentum" behind the push to deliver these, and other much-needed reforms, including the creation of a tribunal to try senior figures suspected of war crimes.
With Kenya as East Africa's economic leader, the prospects for economic progress in Kenya's most important neighboring countries - Tanzania and Uganda - are also tied to Kenya's sustained economic recovery from the meltdown of the late 1990s and early 2000s. Many observers see the revival in recent years of the East African Community (EAC) as the potential vehicle for increasing economic integration and cooperation in the region. Burundi and Rwanda joined the EAC and became full members of the community on July 1, 2007. On the diplomatic front, Kenyan foreign policy has been central to the mediation of long running civil wars in neighboring Sudan and Somalia. Kenya has also historically absorbed large numbers of refugees from conflicts throughout the region - a function that is challenged by current internal displacement.
Beyond the immediate political challenges, Kenya's prospects depend upon three key factors: successful constitutional reform (including effective inquiries into pastwrongs), a fresh start on economic development (requiring the cancellation of the country's nearly $7 billion of external debt), and continued progress that builds on recent successes in the fight against HIV/AIDS. With a new president in office, there is an opportunity for Washington to pay new and closer attention to the Kenya that Kenyans are trying to create and not to rely on policies of the previous administration which focused on U.S. geostrategic visions of the "war on terrorism" that are disconnected from East African realities. U.S. support for these priorities will require new policies and resources that could help support the country's long-term stability.
Entering office in 2003, the Kibaki administration faced grave challenges in improving the lives of Kenya's impoverished majority and tending to long-neglected infrastructure such as roads, telephones and railways. At the end of 2005, the failure of the rains and rapidly declining food security led President Kibaki to declare a state of emergency. The long-running drought and famine crisis peaked in 2006, with millions of Kenyans in need of emergency food aid supplied by the World Food Program. Increased competition over scarce resources, such as water and grazing land, exacerbated conflict among pastoralists and led to ethnically-targeted violence on numerous occasions.
Much of the optimism surrounding Kenya's potential as an emerging democracy and as a country symbolizing stability in a tumultuous and conflict-prone region soured as a result of the December 2007 presidential elections - (see Africa Action's January 3 statement). Despite widespread reports among local and international observers of election irregularities, incumbent Mwai Kibaki claimed victory and assumed the presidency, galvanizing widespread and violent civil unrest among supporters of Raila Odinga, leader of the opposition party the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM). A government crackdown on independent media broadcasting and repressive police actions targeting opposition supporters fueled the spread of a chaotic conflict that has left over a thousand people dead and hundreds of thousands displaced from their homes.
While Western media outlets seized upon the ethnic dimensions of the conflict as the sole explanation for the scope and intensity of the violence that emerged from the tarnished elections, this single-minded focus ignores the underlying structural socio-economic inequalities that are the ultimate root of the crisis. Poverty is still a defining reality for Kenya, with overall poverty levels at over 40% of the population and an average per-capita income of $580. Though, in recent years, economic recovery has been observed (6.1% GDP growth in 2006 and an estimated 6.5% in 2007) the post-election violence of 2008, coupled with the effects of the global financial crisis, resulted in an increase of just 2.3% that year. And, while the increases may have endeared Kenya to Western governments and investors, the benefits of the country's growth have been concentrated among an economic elite, and continued corruption perpetuates economic injustice. In addition, HIV/AIDS remains a serious challenge; though HIV prevalence rates have slowly declined over the past few years to 6.1 %. The mass internal displacement and humanitarian emergency created by the post-electoral violence risks destabilizing the recent expansion of access to lifesaving antiretrovirals for HIV-positive individuals
In January 2008, former UN Secretary General Kofi Annan traveled to Kenya to facilitate negotiations between Odinga and Kibaki to resolve the political crisis. Successfully brokering a power-sharing deal between the two rivals in February, with Odinga sworn in as prime minister in April 2008, Kenyans welcomed an end to chaos and uncertainty. However, the country faces long-term challenges in the election's aftermath. Critics assert that progress on such issues as land reform, constitutional change, youth unemployment, ethnic tensions, and so forth have been painfully slow, hampered by disagreements over the control of parliament committees and other legislative decision-making. And, in 2009, Annan accused Kenya's leaders of "losing [the] momentum" behind the push to deliver these, and other much-needed reforms, including the creation of a tribunal to try senior figures suspected of war crimes.
With Kenya as East Africa's economic leader, the prospects for economic progress in Kenya's most important neighboring countries - Tanzania and Uganda - are also tied to Kenya's sustained economic recovery from the meltdown of the late 1990s and early 2000s. Many observers see the revival in recent years of the East African Community (EAC) as the potential vehicle for increasing economic integration and cooperation in the region. Burundi and Rwanda joined the EAC and became full members of the community on July 1, 2007. On the diplomatic front, Kenyan foreign policy has been central to the mediation of long running civil wars in neighboring Sudan and Somalia. Kenya has also historically absorbed large numbers of refugees from conflicts throughout the region - a function that is challenged by current internal displacement.
Beyond the immediate political challenges, Kenya's prospects depend upon three key factors: successful constitutional reform (including effective inquiries into pastwrongs), a fresh start on economic development (requiring the cancellation of the country's nearly $7 billion of external debt), and continued progress that builds on recent successes in the fight against HIV/AIDS. With a new president in office, there is an opportunity for Washington to pay new and closer attention to the Kenya that Kenyans are trying to create and not to rely on policies of the previous administration which focused on U.S. geostrategic visions of the "war on terrorism" that are disconnected from East African realities. U.S. support for these priorities will require new policies and resources that could help support the country's long-term stability.
