In the past few years there has been little alleviation of the conflict in the Democratic Republic of Congo.  Massacres and violence continue with little sign of abating in the eastern provinces of North and South Kivu.  The Congolese are fleeing their homes in search of refuge in neighboring countries and provinces, while women and girls remain the victims of strategic rape and sexual violence.  Even children continue to be abducted into the rebel forces of the FDLR, Mai Mai, and LRA.  And what is the UN’s response?  A withdrawal of 2,000 UN peacekeeping troops from the Congo.  

In May of this year, the UN passed Security Council Resolution 1925, which calls for the end of MONUC’s mandate on the 50th anniversary of Congo’s independence (June 30th 2010).  Although MONUC is ending in name, on July 1st the mission will become MONUSCO (United Nations Organization Stabilization Mission in the Democratic Republic of Congo).  Paired with this renaming is a new mandate requiring partnership with Joseph Kabila’s government and the continued protection of civilians.  One of the first steps to be undertaken in this stabilization mission is to decrease the 21,500 force by 2,000, allowing for a maximum of 19,815 military personnel.  

UN officials have met with Kabila a number of times in the past months.  Each time, the President has made his stance on MONUC extremely clear: he does not want them there.  In response to supposed state improvements and Kabila’s demands, Alain Le Roy, the UN Under-Secretary-General for Peacekeeping Operations, ultimately conceded to MONUC’s drawdown of troops.  This reduction in mission size is defended with the rationale that withdrawal will only occur in the West.  In this way, the UN is not turning a blind eye to the severe human rights abuses taking place in eastern Congo.  However, while the situation in the western state of Equateur is improving, peace in the West is not entirely guaranteed.  UN officials may have buckled to Kabila’s interests, but their conviction in the western region’s security is not entirely convincing: “…those troops will come from the western part of the country where peace and stability is almost there but not always but globally there,” stated Le Roy.

The reason for Kabila’s commitment to removing the UN peacekeeping force is not entirely clear.  Certainly there are institutional and economic motivations, but most telling may be the upcoming elections in October of 2011.  In the 2006 elections, where Kabila and Jean-Pierre Bemba were the main contenders, Kabila experienced a strong victory in the East of the country.  Similarly, Bemba garnered his support from the West.  Kabila’s coalition also won the majority in 5 eastern provinces (at the time of the elections there were 11 total provinces).  During these elections the UN was actively involved, particularly through providing technical assistance to the Independent Electoral Commission (IEC).  However, the current removal of oversight from an entire region where Kabila has a history of feeble political support is hardly reassuring.  Is the President’s pressure on the UN a manifestation of his preparation for the 2011 elections?  If so, there is considerable likelihood that the West will experience electoral corruption.

In 2010 the Congo greets the newly mandated MONUSCO.  Will Congolese also greet a new President in 2011?

By Stacey Diaz
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